Leadership in a Time of Crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting virtually everything for everyone, from our health and families to our businesses.

More than ever, you need to think like a business person/entrepreneur. You need to adapt to the rapidly changing business landscape, which is shifting daily, if not hourly. For farmers and food entrepreneurs, the impacts are huge. Our food system supply chain has gone from a predominately wholesale model and distribution system to a predominately retail production and distribution system.

The toilet paper shortage is a key example of this shifting dynamic. Toilet paper is produced in two very different formats: residential and commercial. Commercial rolls are packaged in behemoth rolls like we see at sports stadiums and airports, not in neat, individually wrapped packages like we use at home. They’re produced in different factories, using different fibers, and get shipped through different supply chains. Demand hasn’t increased – we’re not going to the bathroom more – but where we go has shifted – dramatically and quickly. The supply chain just can’t keep up with this shift. Factories can’t just shift overnight to a different kind of production. And they’re hesitant to make the infrastructure shift, because when the COVID crisis is over, they’ll probably need to revert back.

The same is true of food production. People aren’t eating less (I’d even venture to say people are eating more – due to stress and being out of work), but how they get their food has shifted. Before the pandemic, half of all food was purchased away from home, (at restaurants and commercial institutions like work or school cafeterias). Now the vast majority of meals are now prepared at home. The supply chain has shifted. The mechanisms that get food from the farms to our tables have changed, quickly and dramatically.

Many farmers are struggling with the shift. I’ve seen photos of rotting fields of strawberries and heard stories of farmers throwing away milk. We’ve got big problems!

How do you problem-solve in a time of crisis? 

Problem solving, or “risk management” is a widely studied topic. But we need to acknowledge how this time is different from other types of crises we’ve weathered (whether it was a hurricane or 9/11):

1. We can’t see the end game. Not only do we not know when it will end; we don’t know how it will end.
2. This is a global crisis; we’re all in this together. Rarely, if ever, have we seen a crisis that has impacted the globe on such a vast scale.
3. The threat is the same for everyone, including our competitors and suppliers.
4. We don’t have time to wait to see how things will play out, because the crisis is moving at such an accelerated pace. And we don’t know what resources will be available when.
5. And because our personal health is at risk (along with family, friends and colleagues), everything is more stressful

Whether it’s figuring out new sales distribution, pricing strategies or production shifts, we need to “problem-solve” our way forward, despite the uncertainty.

Here are some tips from Harvard Business School risk management specialists to help you move forward in these uncertain times.

1. Establish goals, priorities and values. Especially now, when there are so many competing priorities (do we keep our business going so we can earn a living or shut down to keep everyone healthy?), it’s important to clarify your core values so that any potential solution aligns with them.
2. Define the situation. This should be a basic description that outlines the key features and problems.
3. Get creative and develop options. I wrote about brainstorming here and here. The key to effective brainstorming is to keep an open mind. Even the craziest ideas are worth keeping on the table, as they may spark a more realistic solution. Refine the options, so you can map out potential outcomes.
4. Play out your top three outcomes. You’ll need to do a little number crunching here. Do some back of the envelope calculations to see how things might look if you execute any of the ideas.
5. Choose the best course of action and ACT. Based on the above analysis, pick the best course of action with the known information. 

After a week or so, evaluate the current situation and go through the process again. New priorities may emerge as the situation evolves.

Remember: This is an experiment in real time. You’re working off of the best information available at the time. Be proactive, make decisions, and keep learning; and don’t be afraid to revise your plan as your situation evolves. Not everything you try will work, but you must keep trying.

Need help plotting out your next steps? Get in touch and we’ll figure it out.